PFF Model Predicts Receiver Targets For Super Bowl

An analyst at Pro Football Focus (PFF) applies an XGBoost model and route-level data to produce Share of Predicted Targets and Predicted Air Yards, showing these metrics are more stable than actual target measures. Using conference-championship data (e.g., Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Davante Adams) the piece identifies under-targeted breakout candidates (A.J. Barner, Hunter Henry) and highlights Drake Maye's leading 2025 EPA capture rate, informing playcalling and matchup evaluation.